The franchise salesperson shows you a location generating $1.5 million in annual sales.
You begin doing the math in your head. Even a 10 percent profit would produce $150,000 a year. Perhaps you could leave your current job, build equity in the business, and eventually open additional locations.
The opportunity begins to feel real.
But the number that matters is not how much revenue the location generates. It is how much money remains after paying employees, rent, vendors, royalties, advertising fees, debt service, taxes, and every other cost required to operate the business.
Then ask one more question: Does that remaining amount fairly compensate you for your time, your investment, and the risk you are taking?
If you are considering buying a franchise, you may already have spreadsheets provided by the franchisor or prepared by a lender. They may look thorough. They may include sales projections, estimated expenses, and a date when the business is expected to reach break even.
Those projections are not answers. They are assumptions.
Before you invest, an experienced accountant should test whether those assumptions make sense. A franchise attorney can explain the legal obligations and risks contained in the Franchise Disclosure Document and franchise agreement. The attorney should not be your only advisor, however. Evaluating whether the financial model works requires the expertise of an accountant who understands business operations, cash flow, taxes, debt, and financial projections.
You need both perspectives.
Revenue Is Not Profit
Franchise buyers are naturally drawn to revenue numbers. Revenue is easy to understand, easy to compare, and often prominently featured in franchise sales presentations.
Revenue does not tell you whether the owner makes money.
Consider two franchise locations that each generate $1.5 million in annual sales. One has reasonable rent, stable labor costs, and favorable supplier pricing. The other operates in an expensive market, struggles to retain employees, and pays significantly more for occupancy and insurance.
The locations may have identical revenue but dramatically different results.
Even profit can be misleading if the financial presentation does not account for the owner’s labor. A location may report a $120,000 profit while requiring the owner to work 60 hours per week managing the business. If hiring a qualified manager would cost $80,000, the owner’s true return on invested capital may be closer to $40,000.
That may not be the opportunity the buyer thought was being offered.
When evaluating a franchise, separate the return on your labor from the return on your investment. If you will work in the business, determine what the business would need to pay someone else to perform your duties. Only then can you evaluate whether the remaining profit justifies the capital and risk involved.
Start With Item 19, but Do Not Stop There
Item 19 of the Franchise Disclosure Document contains any financial performance representations the franchisor has chosen to make. The franchisor is not required to provide an Item 19 financial performance representation, but if it makes one, the representation must have a reasonable basis and comply with applicable disclosure requirements.
Read Item 19 carefully.
Does it disclose average revenue, median revenue, gross profit, operating profit, or some other measure? How many locations are included? How long have those locations been open? Are company owned locations included? Are recently opened or poorly performing locations excluded? What percentage of locations achieved or exceeded the reported result?
An average can create an overly optimistic impression. If a few locations significantly outperform the rest of the system, they can pull the average upward. The median may provide a more realistic picture of the typical location, but even the median does not tell you how your proposed location will perform.
Also examine the difference between gross sales and owner income. If Item 19 provides only revenue figures, you still need to estimate all operating expenses. If it provides earnings information, determine which expenses were deducted and which were omitted.
Ask whether the calculation includes:
- Royalties and advertising fund contributions
- Local marketing expenses
- Rent and other occupancy costs
- Labor and employee benefits
- Cost of goods and required supplies
- Insurance
- Technology and software fees
- Repairs and maintenance
- Professional fees
- Debt service
- Owner compensation
- Depreciation and future capital expenditures
- Taxes
A financial performance representation can provide useful information. It should be the beginning of the financial analysis, not the end.
Ask an Accountant to Build an Independent Financial Model
Many buyers take the franchisor’s projections and change a few numbers. That is not the same as independently testing the business.
An experienced accountant can help you build a financial model based on the economics of your proposed location. The model should account for the franchise system’s historical results while also incorporating local wages, rent, financing terms, taxes, insurance, and market conditions.
The accountant should not merely confirm that the spreadsheet adds correctly. The accountant should question the assumptions behind it.
How many customers will be required each day? What is the anticipated average transaction? How quickly will sales increase? What gross margin is realistic? How many employees will be necessary at different revenue levels? What happens when wages increase? How much inventory will be lost through waste, theft, spoilage, or obsolescence?
A good financial model connects the sales assumptions to actual business activity. If the model projects $100,000 in monthly sales, it should explain how many customers, memberships, service appointments, or product sales are required to reach that figure.
This is where an accountant provides value beyond arithmetic. An experienced accountant can identify assumptions that look reasonable on paper but do not reflect how cash actually moves through a business.
Determine the True Cost of Opening
Item 7 of the Franchise Disclosure Document provides an estimate of the initial investment. It generally includes categories such as the franchise fee, equipment, leasehold improvements, opening inventory, training expenses, insurance, deposits, and additional funds for an initial operating period.
These are estimates. Your actual costs may be higher.
Ask current franchisees whether their opening costs fell within the Item 7 range. Find out whether they encountered construction overruns, permitting delays, landlord requirements, equipment changes, or additional training expenses.
Then have your accountant review the estimates against your proposed location and financing plan.
If the franchisor estimates that you will need three months of additional funds, determine whether three months is realistic. What happens if construction is delayed? What if sales ramp up more slowly than expected? What if you need to hire a manager earlier than planned?
Many businesses do not fail because the concept could never become profitable. They fail because the owner runs out of cash before the business reaches profitability.
The right question is not simply, “How much will it cost to open?” It is, “How much cash will I need to open, survive the early operating period, and maintain a reasonable reserve?”
Calculate the Break Even Point
Your break even point is the sales level at which the business generates enough gross profit to cover its fixed and variable expenses.
Do not accept a break even number without understanding how it was calculated.
Some costs remain relatively fixed regardless of sales, such as base rent, certain salaries, insurance, and software fees. Other costs increase with revenue, such as royalties, credit card processing fees, inventory, and hourly labor.
An accountant can determine the business’s contribution margin and calculate how much revenue is required to cover the fixed costs. The accountant can then translate that revenue into the number of customers or transactions required each day.
Assume a location needs $110,000 in monthly sales to break even. If the average customer spends $25, the business needs 4,400 transactions per month. That is approximately 147 transactions every day in a 30 day month.
Can the proposed site realistically produce that traffic? Does the staffing plan support it? Is the required customer volume consistent with existing locations in comparable markets?
Break even analysis turns an abstract revenue goal into an operating requirement. It helps you decide whether the projection is plausible.
Account for Every Payment to the Franchisor
Royalties are only one part of the financial relationship.
Review Items 5, 6, and 8 of the Franchise Disclosure Document and identify every required payment, purchase, and continuing expense. Depending on the system, you may pay advertising fund contributions, local marketing expenses, technology fees, software charges, training costs, conference fees, renewal fees, supplier markups, and audit expenses.
Determine whether royalties are calculated on gross sales. In many systems, they are. This means the franchisor is paid before the franchisee’s rent, payroll, loan payment, and other expenses are considered.
Also identify required purchases from the franchisor, its affiliates, or approved suppliers. Ask whether those costs are competitive and how they have changed over time.
Have the accountant place every recurring fee into the model. A 1 percent technology fee or 2 percent advertising obligation may seem manageable when viewed separately. The combined effect of all system fees can materially change profitability.
Do Not Ignore Debt Service
A location may be profitable from an operating perspective and still fail to produce enough cash to cover its loan payments.
Suppose the business generates $140,000 in annual earnings before debt service. If annual principal and interest payments total $90,000, only $50,000 remains before taxes and other owner obligations.
If the owner also works full time in the business, the investment may be providing little return beyond compensation for the owner’s labor.
Ask your accountant to include the actual financing terms in the model, including the interest rate, amortization period, payment schedule, and any expected changes in the rate. Determine whether equipment loans, landlord contributions, or other obligations create additional payments.
Then calculate the debt service coverage ratio. The business needs more than enough cash to make the scheduled loan payments. It needs a cushion for months when revenue declines or expenses increase.
A model that works only when everything goes according to plan is not a reliable model.
Include a Fair Salary for the Owner
One of the most common mistakes in franchise projections is treating the owner’s unpaid labor as profit.
If you will manage the location, work the counter, supervise employees, handle local marketing, or perform administrative duties, assign a market value to that work.
Ask what it would cost to hire someone else to perform each responsibility. Include that amount as an expense when evaluating the underlying profitability of the business.
This does not mean you must pay yourself the full market salary during the first year. Many owners take reduced compensation while establishing a business. But the financial model should reveal whether the business can eventually pay a manager and still generate an acceptable return.
Otherwise, you may be buying yourself a demanding job rather than acquiring a valuable business.
There is nothing wrong with purchasing a business that provides the owner with meaningful employment. You simply need to understand what you are purchasing.
Test the Downside, Not Just the Expected Case
Most projections have one serious weakness: they show what happens if the assumptions are correct.
Your accountant should prepare multiple scenarios.
The expected case reflects what you reasonably believe will occur. The downside case should show what happens if revenue is lower, labor is higher, construction costs increase, or the opening is delayed. A more severe stress test can examine whether the business survives a recession, loss of a major customer base, or unexpected equipment replacement.
Consider questions such as:
- What happens if sales are 15 percent below projections?
- What happens if labor costs are 10 percent higher?
- What happens if rent increases at renewal?
- What happens if the opening is delayed by three months?
- What happens if the franchisor requires a remodel or new technology?
- How much additional capital would be needed?
- How long could the business operate before cash runs out?
The downside analysis may reveal that the business remains viable with lower owner distributions. It may reveal that the owner would need a significant cash reserve. It may also reveal that a relatively small change in revenue makes the business unsustainable.
You should know that before signing a long term agreement and personally guaranteeing the debt.
Speak With Franchisees About Their Actual Economics
Financial due diligence should include conversations with existing and former franchisees.
Do not ask only, “Are you profitable?” Owners may define profitability differently, and some may be uncomfortable disclosing exact income.
Ask more specific questions:
- How long did it take to reach break even?
- Were your opening costs within the Item 7 estimate?
- How much additional working capital did you need?
- What expenses were higher than expected?
- How many hours do you work in the business?
- Could the location afford a full time manager?
- Have supplier, labor, or technology costs increased?
- Have your margins improved or declined?
- What capital improvements have been required?
- Would you make the investment again knowing what you know now?
Ask your accountant whether the franchisees’ experiences support the assumptions in your model. One owner’s experience does not establish the economics of the entire system, but patterns across multiple franchisees can be highly informative.
If several owners report that labor costs are significantly higher than the franchisor’s assumptions, the model should reflect that information.
Understand the Difference Between Profit and Cash Flow
A business can report accounting profit and still experience a cash shortage.
Loan principal payments may reduce cash without appearing as an expense on the income statement. Inventory purchases may require cash before the related products are sold. Equipment replacement and remodeling can create significant cash needs that are not fully reflected in annual operating profit.
Taxes also matter. The legal structure of the business, owner compensation, depreciation, and allocation of income can affect the amount and timing of tax payments.
An accountant can prepare projected income statements, cash flow statements, and balance sheets. Each provides a different view of the business.
The income statement shows whether the operation is profitable. The cash flow statement shows whether the business has enough money to meet its obligations. The balance sheet shows what the business owns, what it owes, and how the owner’s equity changes over time.
A buyer needs all three perspectives.
Consider the Value of the Business at Exit
The financial analysis should not end with annual income.
Ask whether the franchise can eventually be sold and what may determine its value. A buyer may consider earnings, location, lease terms, remaining franchise term, required renovations, transfer fees, and the franchisor’s approval process.
If the business remains heavily dependent on the owner’s labor, it may be more difficult to sell. If the lease expires soon or a major remodel is required, the price may be reduced. If the franchise agreement gives the franchisor a right of first refusal or broad control over transfers, those provisions may affect the exit process.
Your accountant can help estimate how debt will decline and equity may grow over time. Your franchise attorney can explain the contractual conditions governing a future transfer.
Neither should promise what the business will be worth. Together, however, they can help you understand the factors that will affect whether the investment creates lasting value.
Your Accountant and Franchise Attorney Have Different Jobs
A franchise attorney and an accountant should work together, but they serve different roles.
The franchise attorney reviews the Franchise Disclosure Document and franchise agreement. The attorney identifies legal obligations, transfer restrictions, termination rights, personal guarantees, territory limitations, supplier requirements, and provisions that may be negotiable.
The accountant evaluates whether the business can work financially. The accountant tests revenue assumptions, operating costs, working capital, debt service, taxes, cash flow, and the return on the buyer’s investment.
A lawyer may recognize that the agreement requires a 6 percent royalty and a 2 percent advertising contribution. An accountant can determine how those charges affect the break even point and the amount left for the owner.
An accountant may determine that the projected model requires an unusually high sales level. A franchise attorney can then examine whether the franchisor’s Item 19 disclosures and contractual obligations support the assumptions being made.
A thorough franchise review is incomplete if it addresses only the legal documents or only the financial spreadsheet.
Decide What Return You Need
Even if the franchise is likely to make money, it may not produce enough money to justify the investment.
Determine how much capital you will contribute, how much debt you will guarantee, how many hours you will work, and what other opportunities you will give up. Then decide what return would reasonably compensate you for those commitments.
Compare the projected return with the compensation you could earn elsewhere and the returns available from less demanding investments. Consider whether the model depends on opening multiple units before the economics become attractive.
Some buyers accept a lower initial return because they see an opportunity to build a larger enterprise. That may be a reasonable decision. It should be a deliberate one supported by sufficient capital and realistic projections.
Do not let the size of the projected revenue distract you from the size of the owner’s actual return.
Make the Numbers Prove the Opportunity
A franchise salesperson is paid to sell franchises. That does not make the information unreliable, but it does mean you must perform your own analysis.
The financial model should survive questions from someone who is not emotionally invested in the answer.
Ask an experienced accountant to build or review the projections. Provide the accountant with the FDD, Item 19 disclosures, estimated startup costs, proposed lease terms, financing documents, local wage information, and notes from your conversations with franchisees.
Then ask the accountant to challenge the model.
What assumptions are most important? Which are least reliable? How much cash is actually required? What sales level produces break even? What happens if the opening is delayed or revenue falls short? Does the business provide a return after fairly compensating the owner?
Your franchise attorney can help you understand the agreement you are signing. Your accountant can help you determine whether the business created by that agreement is financially viable.
Do not ask either professional to do the other’s job.
The final question is not whether someone has made money with the franchise. The question is whether you can reasonably expect to make enough money in your market, with your costs, your financing, and your level of involvement.
Do not fall in love with the revenue.
Make the numbers prove the opportunity.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Rush Nigut is a franchise attorney with more than 30 years of experience representing franchisees, franchise buyers, and business owners. He helps prospective franchisees evaluate Franchise Disclosure Documents (FDDs), negotiate franchise agreements, and protect their investment before they sign. His mission at Rush on Business is to help entrepreneurs make smarter franchise decisions through practical legal and business insights.








